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  MSA - Demographic Forecasting Models

While MSA has a variety of services and applications that will provide short-term estimates, longer-term forecasts can provide insights into additional issues such as brand health. Whereas short-term forecasts tend to be based on brand, company, and category-specific variables, long-term forecasts rely on broader industry and demographic trends.

In addition to providing a better read on future sales and providing valuable information to guide production, manufacturing, and marketing, long-term forecasts can help clients:
  • Understand buyer profiles years out
  • Anticipate trends rather than to just react to them
  • Develop contingency plans for factors which may influence sales
Brand Share Forecast for Brand X
Based on Demographic Trends



Factors that can have an influence on long-term forecasts include the following:
  • Population growth rates and demographic trends
  • Industry incidence trends
  • Current and projected brand shares
  • Brand loyalty and switching behavior
  • Brand user retention rates


Long-term demographic forecasts also allow for:
  • Tracking shares within age cohorts for increased accuracy and more detailed reporting
  • Incorporating cross-usage of brands within a category
  • Providing organic trends which are not captured by a sales-based forecast
US Adult Population
The shaded boxes illustrate the effect of aging within an adult age cohort.


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